Will Colleges Be Open As Usual Next Fall?
Last Updated on May 20, 2020 by Jill Schwitzgebel
Now that we have mostly gotten answers to our earliest questions about the Covid-19 impact on college admissions, this big one remains – will colleges be open next fall? Cornell University recently released a preprint of a study that showed that nearly every student on campus (98 – 99% depending on the size of the institution) is connected indirectly through a third student. So, it is easy to imagine the implications of that on campus during a pandemic with a highly contagious virus. As of this week, in the middle of April, rumors abound about various scenarios. I have read so many articles about this topic this week that my head is spinning. I’m going to try to do a round-up of many of them for you here.
Delay the Semester?
At least one institution, Boston University, has openly announced that one option they are considering is not opening until January. And then, they would offer their second semester in the summer. There are rumblings that hundreds of other schools are considering the same thing. This is probably the option that seems to be causing the most angst among many of us that will have college students next fall. One reason that this is probably my personal least favorite option is that I wonder what all of these college students stuck at home would DO? It’s not likely that they will all be able to find employment. And then, if they have classes the following summer, they will not be able to participate in summer internships or have summer jobs to earn additional money.
But, there is no definitive answer at this time about what colleges will choose to do, and it’s important that we understand that it is only one of the options on the table. Any reputable institution has already formed a task force or committee that is meeting regularly to make a decision about how to proceed. Colleges are very clear that it’s a decision that they cannot make alone and has to be made with the support of local public health officials.
Go Online?
Obviously, there are other options under consideration. Most colleges moved to remote learning online to finish up the semester after they sent their students home. And there are reasons to believe that this would be most institution’s first choice if they don’t feel it’s feasible to have students back on campus in the fall. However, online class delivery has provoked complaints and even lawsuits from students who believe that they should not have to pay full tuition for that option. And certainly, some colleges and some professors were able to institute it better than others. Most undergraduates that live and attend classes on campus, chose that residential option for a reason. So, institutions have some concern about whether those same students would still be willing to pay tuition to attend online classes. And without full tuition, but with the technology costs of going online, it would pose a real financial hardship to most schools.
Other Alternatives?
Other alternatives that are being considered include pushing back the start date for the semester by a month or six weeks. And still one other idea I have heard is to consider block scheduling – students might take only one course for three weeks at a time. Perhaps that would give colleges more flexibility and the ability to either send students home or bring them back to campus more easily?
Close Their Gates for Good?
Finally, one big unknown is whether some institutions will be able to sustain themselves due to the financial hits that they have already taken this spring. Some institutions certainly do seem to be at risk. But, I like to think that this is by far the worst case scenario, which ignores colleges’ historic creativity in the face of adversity. But, with many families experiencing financial distress as a result of the pandemic, there may be only so much that colleges can do. There are signs that the financial stress might change college plans for many students, which could further impact college and university budgets next year.
My Guess
I want to say upfront that I am not a medical professional, but if I had to guess, at this time, I would be surprised if undergraduate students are on campus next September. There have been a number of models, similar to this one recently released by Harvard, that seem to indicate a surge in coronavirus cases again in August and September. I am just not sure how colleges can operate in the midst of that. I think of college dorms much like a cruise ship as far as germ transmission, and maybe worse, due to the communal bathrooms.
I think there is a slight possibility that graduate and law school students, who typically do not live on campus and are typically in small classes, could return to campus, even if undergraduates do not. The ability to maintain social distance would be key.
I believe the most likely scenario is that classes will be held online next fall. Institutions have to make that decision shortly though, and I would expect the announcements to be made in June. The good news is that it would give faculty more time to prepare than they had in the spring and should make high-quality remote learning more likely in the fall. But, it’s far from the ideal college experience most of us wanted for our kids.
To me, the most optimistic view might be that it’s still too soon to know what next fall will look like on campus. Look how much more we know and understand about Covid-19 than we did a month ago. We know that medical professionals are currently trialing lots of antiviral and other medication that could be game-changers. While we know a vaccine seems to be at least a year away, if the researchers can find a readily available medication or combination of them that makes the symptoms less severe or that could be taken prophylactically, I believe that could make the return to college campuses in the fall more likely.
Update: As of 5/20/2020, many colleges have announced their decisions about next fall – and so far, the majority have decided classes will be held on campus. I have many questions about that – and you should too. Here are the questions I think parents need to ask – Eight Big Questions for Colleges Planning to Re-Open
